I'd suggest that you consider doing either an eye-tracking study or 1:1 usability tests where you watch and record the user's mouse movements (and ideally get them to talk back as they work to let you know what they expect and what they are thinking). Either of these could be useful in helping you determine the findability of your icon.
There's a lot to consider here, of course... who are your users and what are they trying to do on this page? How frequently are they visiting this page, is this an "expert" interface - something they need to learn but will then be in frequently - first time users (who are likely to scan the page for "hooks" that are relevant to their needs), or something in between? How many possibly actions are there already on this page, how high is the priority of this one, how well are the options grouped with each other or with relevant info, and how far around the screen do their eyes need to travel to find each one? These are all things that might help determine how to test and how to design the page.
You can find some general standards about timing and user expectations across the web, including some Norman Nielsen articles on performance SLAs (these being more about time than space), and this somewhat more relevant piece discussing the very general "15 second rule," which may or may not apply to your context... but it's a place to start.