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When a user loads a page by clicking on a link or image they may stay and read the content or they may "bounce" (leave).

Presuming fewer people stick around the longer the page takes to load, are there any canonical statistics or available studies on how much the bounce rate increases with page load time?

For example, if a page loads in 5 seconds perhaps 80% of people don't bounce. But if the page load takes 7 seconds, perhaps only 75% stay, and if it takes 12+ seconds, perhaps 60% stay.

I know this would vary a lot according to the website/page/users, but I would be interested in any canonical statistics or 'headline' figures that can be used in approximations; that is, knowing something (e.g. figures for websites we may know or be able to relate to) is better than not knowing at all.

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According to Pingdom, the conventional wisdom has been more like two seconds (Google's recommendation), whereas the average website takes 3.21.

The drop-off is much steeper than you suppose, based on their charts:

Pingdom page speed vs bounce rate chart

You've lost a quarter by 4 seconds, half by 7 seconds. Also, this was in 2018, and I would suspect that people's expectations of their Internet speed have gone up since then (despite average page size also growing).

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    Wow >50% bounce after 7 seconds - reality is brutal.
    – stevec
    Commented Jan 23, 2022 at 13:19

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