I still believe Jared Spool's As the Page Scrolls is the simplest, most concise fold-debunking piece out there.
But, inevitably, you can't completely ignore the fold -- if the user isn't convinced, enticed, or otherwise cajoled into scrolling, then there is clearly a problem. More interestingly, I believe, is that you can actually take advantage of the fold. Jared discusses this notion in a later piece, which, I believe, follows the intuition many of us already have about scrolling.
On the other hand, I don't believe clicks matter at all. It's all about user-expectations. If the user feels like he/she is on the right path, he/she might very well click a dozen times; each time getting "closer." It's all about whether or not the site at a given moment and position is meeting the expectations, desires, and inclinations of its users.